"Key Number" in the NFL


All gamblers know about "3" and "7" are key numbers when betting football, specifically the National Football League since there is so much variance in college football. In 2015, the PAT got moved back after touchdowns, which in a few more years when we have enough data, the key numbers will possibly change and with future rule changes. But for now, we have this:

 Record says the final margin of victory should happen:

  • 14-15% of the time for 3
  • 9-10% of the time for 7
  • 6-7% of the time for 10
  • 5-6% of the time for 6
  • 4-5% of the time for 4
  • 3-4% of the time for 1,2,3 and 8
  • 1-2% of the time for 9

As you see with the numbers above, there is a reason "3" and "7" are discussed the "Key Numbers". Most professional bettors win 53-54% over a large sampling of picks, but this is how you are successful long term. Knowing this, we also know going through the years of season data that if a line goes from -3 to -2.5 that favorite went from a 54% to 46% win. Imagine that the line went from -3 to -3.5, now it is the dog that is 55% to 45% win.

Most recreational gamblers forget that gambling is like any other statistics driven by sport. Math and data matter, and when you dig through the data, we find trends that we can follow at higher chances of success than just our gut feeling or our perspective on data.

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